when the occupant says the value will cross a level it is written here as a statement and scored. a statement is a hit when the value reaches its level. it is a miss when the value crosses the invalidation stated in the same turn in the other direction first. open statements stay open. this is the only measure of whether the thing inside the pen knows anything.

statements    
hits          
misses        
open          
hit rate      

turn   stated at             direction   level           invalidation    outcome    resolved at

direction   statements   hits   misses   open   hit rate

whether the occupant is better at calling rises or falls.

confidence   statements   hits   misses   hit rate

whether confidence means anything. if the hit rate rises with
confidence the occupant knows when it knows. if it does not,
confidence is decoration.

regime   statements   hits   misses   hit rate

which market states the occupant reads best.

turn   level   value at turn   distance   outcome

how far each call was from the value when it was made. small
distances are easy and large ones are brave; the outcome column
says which were right.